Last Chance for the EU in the Western Balkans and the Eastern Partnership
Donald Trump’s shredding of USAID is about to hit much closer to home. Just as life-saving aid is at risk in Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of Congo, the freeze on US development aid has set off the alarm in the Western Balkans and Eastern Partnership countries.
By Rareș Voicu, President of the European Youth Forum.
At a global scale, President Trump’s decision leaves a gap of roughly USD 40 billion (EUR 38.7 billion) in humanitarian and development aid. In the Western Balkans, USAID has been working with governments, civil society and the private sector for decades, promoting democracy, enabling the fight against corruption and for European integration. The agency’s declared aim is to promote stability in the region and integration into Europe. With the USAID’s website and annual reports taken down, it is challenging to gather official data, but according to the US Congressional Research Service, USD 17.2 billion (EUR 16.6 billion) of the agency’s annual budget were spent in Europe and Eurasia, more than any other region. All this is now gone.
Based on information from the European Youth Forum’s network, we estimate that, in Serbia, the freeze impacts up to USD 80 million (EUR 77.4 million) in funding for civil society. This includes support for groups fighting against LGBTQI+ discrimination, an organisation which provides legal aid to anti-corruption protesters, and many local youth organisations. The National Youth Council, which represents young people and promotes their participation in democracy, has lost one-third of its budget.
In North Macedonia, at least 10 organisations in our network alone have lost 50% or more of their budget, and the National Youth Council there estimates that approximately USD 72 million (EUR 69.6 million) in 22 projects have been suspended.
Europe cannot allow a vacuum to form when this funding disappears. The bloc has been delivering major investments in reform and growth, but underpinning it all was US support. This comfortable status quo allowed European governments to take a sluggish approach to accession negotiations.
Alarmingly, the threat does not stop there. In Moldova, USAID was a lifeline to civil society and independent media. After a pro-European amendment to the constitution passed in a referendum only by a razor-thin margin, the EU cannot afford to let Russia take hold. USAID has been supporting the Moldova Resilience Initiative (MRI) since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This programme, which has focused on reaching both Russian- and Romanian-speaking people in the country to foster Moldovan unity and European identity, is now in jeopardy.
Belarusian civil society is also in danger, with 55% of pro-democracy youth organisations receiving more than half their funding from the US. One third of them estimate they will be forced to stop their operations within a month if alternative funding is not found. Within 90 days – the official period for which USAID spending is pending review – 80% of organisations will already cease to exist.
Now is the time for immediate action. The European integration of the Western Balkans is first and foremost a European interest, as is the integration of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. For years, we have heard EU leaders repeat that the region’s future is European. Young people and civil society have been pivotal in making the region’s shift towards the EU, and Europe cannot afford to disappoint them, especially now that the US has turned its back on the region.
Europe has to step out of America’s shadow and demonstrate its willingness to take charge.It must fill the void that President Trump has created and urgently fund civil society organisations, to prevent their collapse. In the longer term, the European Commission should ensure that independent and democratic youth organisations from the Western Balkans and the Eastern Partnership can easily access the EU’s youth and civil society programmes, notably all parts of Erasmus+ and European Solidarity Corps, as well as the Citizens, Equality, Rights and Values Programme (CERV). In parallel, Europe will need to step up its political efforts to strengthen legislative and institutional frameworks in the region, and ensure that young people are not excluded from any national democratic and political process.
The region that many in the West liked to call “Europe’s backyard” is now knocking on its front door. If the EU does not answer, years of progress will be lost.
